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Elena Rakova, an expert from the Privatization and Management Institute's Research Center and a PhD, analyses the Belarusian labor market.
The Belarusian labor market can be characterized as rudimentary, marginalized, non-transparent and contradictory. Although the official unemployment rate is extremely low, up to a million Belarusians are working abroad according to state figures.
The authorities boast of unemployment levels of under 2%, which are extremely low in comparison with those of EU countries - where at least 8% unemployment is common. In some regions of Poland, 20 to 30% of residents are jobless. However, the powers that be have been keeping silent about the methodology used to calculate this unemployment rate. In the West, ILO-approved opinion poll methods are used; in Belarus, the unemployment rate is based on the number of those registered at employment centers. Unemployment legislation in Belarus is the most market-oriented in Europe. To obtain just 30,000 Roubles in unemployment benefit, an applicant must register at an employment centre and work several days cleaning the streets. Refusal to take part in public works or fill an offered vacancy leads to exclusion from the list of unemployed.
Although there are almost no unemployed people registered in Belarus, the number of trains and planes to Moscow grows annually and cheap tickets on Belarusian trains sell out. Anyone polling friends, acquaintances and relatives will reveal that everyone knows someone working in Russia. My estimates suggest there are between 700,000 and 800,000 Belarusians working in Moscow alone. Many, just like my sister, marry and assume Russian citizenship. Barely half of my sister's fellow graduates from 10 years ago still reside in Minsk. The same number of Belarusians are thought to work and study in Europe and the USA. Very few people want to return to Belarus, having spent 7 or 8 years in the West. The real number of people living in Belarus is closer to 8 million than 10 million - the official population size - and will continue to fall each year.
The social protection bodies raised the alarm, preventing the authorities from withholding information on hidden unemployment. Since labor migrants do not contribute to the pension fund, a ballooning crisis has become apparent. There is a struggle between pride and common sense, with some state agencies insisting that unemployment in Belarus is virtually non-existent, while others push for true opinion polls and pension reform.
According to official statistics, construction professionals are most in demand, while accountants, economists and lawyers are in a far less favourable position. Official data is hard to check. However, the labor market is, nevertheless, a market - a premise which holds true for Minsk and other Belarusian cities. Although construction workers are indeed in short supply in Belarus, a good accountant, lawyer or programmer is never without a job.
Belarusian educational institutions churn out thousands of poorly qualified graduates with overblown ambitions. They hope for salaries ranging from US$300 to 400 each month but employment prospects for university graduates are bleak when we consider 35% income tax, an underdeveloped private sector and the sorry state of the public sector.
The labor market in Belarus is growing increasingly tight, as programmers, builders, market specialists and designers depart for Russia and Ukraine. Faced with labor shortages, the governments of some countries have stepped up efforts to attract migrants. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland see Belarusians as an ideal choice:they are educated and law-abiding and are ready to integrate into their new host country.
If such trends continue unabated, Belarus may come to resemble Moldova - where qualified builders, engineers, teachers, doctors and managers turn to other CIS countries for employment (primarily Russia and Ukraine). Hundreds of top graduates will endeavour to settle in the EU or the USA.
Increasing emigration by both young and more experienced people will ultimately lead to services deteriorating in Belarus, while rendering them more expensive. Moldovans say that (a) real estate in Chisinau is overly expensive; (b) there are more cars per capita in Chisinau than in any other CIS city; (c) one has to travel abroad to see a good doctor; and (d) local universities are too expensive and provide poor training. These are the consequences of an uncompetitive labor market. Money sent home by migrant workers is keeping the country alive, sustaining those who remain in Moldova. However, this cash does not contribute to the development of the country per se. A deteriorating economic situation in Belarus could bring the Moldovan scenario to life, as we have so many qualified people to offer to other countries.
Under current economic and political conditions, only cheap and less-qualified labor can expect to be attracted into Belarus; this will only create additional social and economic tension. In the context of an expected economic crisis and an impending fall in living standards (higher prices and reduced subsidies following a rise in gas prices), the arrival of specialists from Asia could also trigger a wave of xenophobia in Belarus.
Source : http://www.nmnby.org
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